"The risk of an eruption of Vesuvius is very high and we must never lower our guard." This was the alarm raised at the last conference organized by the Order of Geologists of Campania. In particular, the president of the Order, Francesco Russo: "People have underestimated the danger of the case and when Vesuvius explodes, it will be a dramatic scenario, despite the great attention of Civil Protection. The real tragedy is that, despite the ban does not inhabit that area, the speculation continued to build under the slopes of the volcano. This situation is already evident by looking at the mountain from afar. The gaze falls, unfortunately, those homes that, in case of explosion would be washed away by the lava and lapilli. Cancel and erased in one moment all those lives destroyed. Now, because, despite the evacuation plans, the buildings are too close to the crater of Vesuvius. " From the scientific point of view, Vesuvius is constantly monitored. The Vesuvius Observatory in recent years, has installed a thorough network of instruments for the monitoring of geophysical and geochemical parameters other than those related to seismicity, deformation and gas emissions from the same soil. According to the scholar, who has really underestimated the danger of Mount Vesuvius has been the policy and the general public. "When Mount Vesuvius explode - supports Russian - will be a dramatic scenario, despite the great attention of Civil Protection. The real tragedy is that, despite the ban does not inhabit that area, the speculation continued to build under the slopes of the volcano. This situation is already evident by looking at the mountain from afar. The gaze falls, unfortunately, those homes that, if explosion would be washed away by the lava and lapilli. Cancel and erased in one moment all those lives destroyed. Now, because, despite the evacuation plans, the buildings are too close to the crater of Vesuvius. "
In these years has been allocated hundreds of thousands of euro to promote the evacuation from the red zone, the area on the slopes of the crater considered at higher risk. The project was entitled "Vesu-on." La Regione Campania fund the purchase of a house outside the red zone. The result was disastrous. Only a hundred people took advantage, while, at present, there are nearly 10,000 living in areas at higher risk. According to the president of geologists from Campania: "We should, in fact, remove as many permanent settlements possible perhaps by converting these areas to purely tourist destination." One of the reasons for the failure of "Vesu-way" is certainly due to the fact that for people born and lived in those places, it is difficult to leave. "This, however - confirms Russian - must not forget that when it explodes, the flow of people run away will be a lot el'epilogo is expected to be in every tragic case. For these reasons, the appeal is hard to the political institutions that must take serious measures. " According to a technical Vesuvian Observatory we heard, but asks us not to be named, no doubt from the standpoint geophysicist one of the "signs of the eruption precursors will be an intense seismic activity with a magnitude of about 5 degrees on the Richter scale and the occurrence of swelling of the soil in areas several kilometers distant from each other. " Laconic, but then comments: "We live on a time bomb and we do not know when the timer expires." In fact, it is certainly true that a volcanic eruption, unlike the case for earthquakes, although it is likely, even today, it is not possible to determine what will be its performance, if it materializes, that is, phenomena that do not constitute a direct threat to human life or evolve into forms catastrophic. An "unnecessary" evacuation as a preventive measure, among other things, could lead to distrust among the population in the same structures responsible for volcanic monitoring and civil protection.
Santoianni According to Francis in his book Disaster Management - Civil Protection (Publisher Accursio) the best hypothesis, in the case of "-type eruption of Vesuvius" at the outset, immediately after the explosion of the "cap" that now covers inside the crater, the launch of the atmosphere large amount of "pyroclastic fallout" (basically, ash and lapilli) who, driven by gravity and wind, falling into a more or less wide, the consequences of this rain, if not treated in time, could be disastrous as pyroclastic fallout can start fires and build up on the roofs of the houses causing them to collapse. Not surprisingly, always been the attitude of many populations living volcanic areas was to remain in the area (starting with the famous eruption in 79 AD that destroyed the ancient Pompeii) during some phases of the eruption, exposing themselves to protect their homes, in turn, further risk because the rash can develop, even in a short time, immediately dangerous phenomena for people, for example, burning clouds (surge) or destructive avalanches (lahar). The latter phenomenon, in strict chronological order, would be the lava flow downstream. According to a report in an interview the former director of the Vesuvius Observatory, Professor Giuseppe Luongo "There is no preparation in the Vesuvius area, have not produced any possibility of reorganization of the territory at risk, so now you are hiding behind scientists. " Luongo, former Professor of Physics at the University of volcanism of Naples, presented a scenario disturbing to say the least. "It's as if there had been a breakthrough in the dynamics of the volcano - Luongo says - and how much this will weigh in the future for a recovery of the eruptive activity is all to study and play." According to Luongo much information concerning the activity of the volcano have not been disclosed to the public. "First, to give peace to the people. Second, because there is no preparation in the Vesuvian area and this is the complaint that we do because we have passed the four years since the preparation of the National Civil Protection Plan. It is to say, however, that the national plan is largely inadequate to the reality of Vesuvius, and also the municipalities that have not produced any possibility of reorganization of the territory at risk are hiding behind the scientists often disagree among themselves. We must organize the territory, so the local community should avoid building new roads, but efforts at urban planning "wild" fruit of speculation began after the Second World War. We must do the reverse, drawing people to other areas, with appropriate budgets, avoid sending the fray. " Asked then if in case of eruption there is a possibility of escape for the people, Luongo has replied as follows: "First the hypothesis of the plan is this: the eruption will be highly explosive, and will be provided for fifteen days before [...] but I can assure you that there are no scientifically valid evidence to predict an eruption with so far in advance, because the eruption, experience gained worldwide, is expected within hours, up to a maximum of two or three days before. Secondly, there is a plan of evacuation for a period of one week to leave the city. It is a shocking thing, think of the tension and panic in the city that will be applied in anticipation of his turn. We do not prepare people to move fast and a civilian, without creating problems to others. " Article by Peter Saved the November 28, 2009, taken from Giornalettismo.com. Photo found on the net.
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